How do point spreads work in football?
Comprehensive guide to understanding football point spreads and how arbitrage betting eliminates risk.
How do point spreads work in football?
Point spreads in football are a way to even the playing field by giving a margin of victory or defeat that bettors wager against.
They allow bettors to wager not just on who wins, but on whether a team covers a specified margin, making betting more balanced and engaging.
While predicting point spreads involves uncertainty, arbitrage betting removes guesswork by guaranteeing profit regardless of the outcome.
Understanding Point Spreads
A point spread is a number set by oddsmakers that handicaps the favored team and gives an advantage to the underdog. The favorite must win by more than the spread for a bet on them to pay off, while a bet on the underdog wins if they lose by less than the spread or win outright.
- •Favorites have a negative point spread (e.g., -7), meaning they must win by more than 7 points.
- •Underdogs have a positive point spread (e.g., +7), meaning they can lose by up to 7 points or win outright.
- •The spread aims to balance betting action on both sides.
💡Basic Point Spread Example
If Team A is favored by -6.5 points against Team B (+6.5), Team A must win by 7 or more points for a bet on them to succeed. If Team A wins by 6 or fewer points, or loses, bets on Team B win.
Bet on Team A: win if final margin > 6.5; Bet on Team B: win if margin <= 6.5
How Point Spread Bets Are Settled
After the game, the margin of victory determines which side wins the bet. If the favorite's margin exceeds the spread, bettors on the favorite win. If the margin is less, bettors on the underdog win. In cases where the margin exactly equals the spread, the bet is a push and stakes are returned.
- •Winning bets payout based on odds set by bookmakers, often near even money.
- •Pushes occur if the margin equals the spread, resulting in no winner or loser.
- •Some spreads use half-points (e.g., 6.5) to avoid pushes.
💡Push Example
If the spread is -3 and the favorite wins by exactly 3 points, the bet is a push and all bets are refunded.
Final margin = spread => bet refunded
The Importance of Point Spreads in Football Betting
Point spreads make betting on football more competitive by balancing uneven team strengths. Without spreads, favorites would dominate betting action and odds would be less attractive. Spreads encourage wagers on both sides and better reflect game dynamics.
- •They level the betting field and increase market liquidity.
- •They allow for more nuanced betting strategies beyond picking the winner.
- •Point spreads often influence in-game coaching and strategies.
💡Impact on Betting Choices
A strong favorite might have a -14 spread, tempting bettors to back the underdog with +14 for a safer bet even if the underdog loses.
Bet on underdog wins if margin of loss < 14 points
Challenges in Betting Point Spreads
Betting point spreads requires predicting not just the winner but the margin of victory, which adds complexity and risk. Unexpected game events, injuries, or strategic decisions can affect the final margin. Traditional betting exposes bettors to losses if predictions are wrong.
- •Accurate margin predictions are difficult and influenced by many variables.
- •Line movements can cause confusion and impact bet timing.
- •Managing risk is challenging due to uncertain outcomes.
💡Risk Example
A bettor backing a favorite with a -7 spread may lose if the team wins by only 3 points, despite winning the game.
Margin < spread => bet loss
How Arbitrage Betting Solves Point Spread Risks
Arbitrage betting exploits differing odds across bookmakers to guarantee profit regardless of the outcome, eliminating the risk of guessing margins correctly. This method uses point spreads from multiple sources to create a risk-free betting scenario.
- •Arbitrage removes uncertainty by covering all outcomes.
- •It requires finding discrepancies in spreads and odds across bookmakers.
- •Tools like ArbitUp automate complex calculations to identify arbitrage opportunities.
💡Arbitrage Example
By placing offsetting bets on opposite sides of a point spread at different bookmakers offering favorable odds, bettors can lock in profit regardless of the game's margin.
Stake1 / Odds1 + Stake2 / Odds2 = 1 or less indicates arbitrage
Calculating Payouts and Returns with Point Spreads
Payouts on point spread bets are typically close to even money, adjusted slightly for bookmaker margin (vig). Calculating exact returns requires understanding odds formats and stake sizes. For complex scenarios or multiple bets, calculations can be challenging.
- •American odds of -110 mean you bet $110 to win $100.
- •Calculating break-even points requires factoring in the vig.
- •Arbitrage betting calculations can be automated using tools like ArbitUp.
💡Payout Calculation Example
A $110 bet at -110 odds returns $210 total ($110 stake + $100 winnings) if successful.
Payout = Stake + (Stake * 100 / 110)
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- ⚠️Ignoring the vig which reduces overall profitability
- ⚠️Betting without considering line movements and timing
- ⚠️Misunderstanding push scenarios leading to unexpected losses
- ⚠️Failing to shop for the best point spreads across bookmakers
- ⚠️Overestimating ability to predict exact margins
- ⚠️Using inconsistent stake sizes that reduce potential returns
- ⚠️Not exploring arbitrage opportunities that eliminate risk
The Power of Arbitrage Betting
Arbitrage betting eliminates guesswork by guaranteeing profits regardless of game outcomes through strategic betting on all possible results.
- ✓Removes risk associated with predicting point spreads
- ✓Allows for consistent, reliable profits
- ✓Simplifies complex betting calculations with automation tools
Get Started with ArbitUp
Ready to start earning guaranteed profits?
ArbitUp is the best and most affordable tool to discover and automate arbitrage betting opportunities quickly and easily.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This content is for entertainment and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Sports betting involves substantial risk. Only bet with money you can afford to lose. See our Terms of Service for complete legal disclaimers.